Abstract

Exposure to ozone and fine particle (PM 2.5) air pollution results in premature death. These pollutants are predominantly secondary in nature and can form from nitrogen oxides (NO X), sulfur oxides (SO X), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Predicted health benefits for emission reduction scenarios often incompletely account for VOCs as precursors as well as the secondary organic aerosol (SOA) component of PM 2.5. Here, we show that anthropogenic VOC emission reductions are more than twice as effective as equivalent fractional reductions of SO X or NO X at reducing air pollution-associated cardiorespiratory mortality in the United States. A 25% reduction in anthropogenic VOC emissions from 2016 levels is predicted to avoid 13,000 premature deaths per year, and most (85%) of the VOC-reduction benefits result from reduced SOA with the remainder from ozone. While NO X (-5.7 ± 0.2 % yr -1) and SO X (-12 ± 1 % yr -1) emissions have declined precipitously across the U.S. since 2002, anthropogenic VOC emissions (-1.8 ± 0.3 % yr -1) and concentrations of non-methane organic carbon (-2.4 ± 1.0 % yr -1) have changed less. This work indicates preferentially controlling VOCs could yield significant benefits to human health.

MeSH

Air Pollution, Environmental Pollution, Mortality, Premature

Cited by

• Temperature-dependent composition of summertime PM 2.5 in observations and model predictions across the Eastern U.S. ACS Earth Space Chem, 2024
• Non-linearity of secondary pollutant formation estimated from emissions data and measured precursor-secondary pollutant relationships. NPJ Clim Atmos Sci, 2022
• Indoor Air Sources of Outdoor Air Pollution: Health Consequences, Policy, and Recommendations: An Official American Thoracic Society Workshop Report. Ann Am Thorac Soc, 2024
• Air quality prediction and control systems using machine learning and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system. Heliyon, 2024
• Associations of long-term exposure to nitrogen oxides with all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Nat Commun, 2025
• Spatiotemporal trends in PM 2.5 chemical composition in the conterminous U.S. during 2006-2020. Atmos Environ (1994), 2024
• Reactive organic carbon air emissions from mobile sources in the United States. Atmos Chem Phys, 2024
• Integration of Data and Predictive Models for the Evaluation of Air Quality and Noise in Urban Environments. Sensors (Basel), 2024
• Leveraging scientific community knowledge for air quality model chemistry parameterizations. EM (Pittsburgh Pa), 2024
• Bridging Existing Energy and Chemical Transport Models to Enhance Air Quality Policy Assessment. Environ Model Softw, 2025
• Linking gas, particulate, and toxic endpoints to air emissions in the Community Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Multiphase Mechanism (CRACMM). Atmos Chem Phys, 2023