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Publications

Journal Article Ppublish 1 citation

PubMed: 38264538 DOI: 10.4209/aaqr.220414

Effect of Future Climate Change on Stratosphere-to-Troposphere-Exchange Driven Ozone in the Northern Hemisphere.

Aerosol Air Qual Res 23(12):1-15

Authors: Shovan Kumar Sahu, Lei Chen, Song Liu, Jia Xing, Rohit Mathur

Affiliations

  • Centre for Climate Research Singapore, Meteorological Service Singapore, Singapore 537054, Singapore. State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China. State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, Beijing 100084, China.
  • State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China. State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, Beijing 100084, China.
  • State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
  • State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, Beijing 100084, China.
  • Economy and Information Technology Department of Zhejiang, Zhejiang, China.
  • The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA.

Abstract

Future estimates of atmospheric pollutant concentrations serve as critical information for policy makers to formulate current policy indicators to achieve future targets. Tropospheric burden of O 3 is modulated not only by anthropogenic and natural precursor emissions, but also by the downward transport of O 3 associated with stratosphere to troposphere exchange (STE). Hence changes in the estimates of STE and its contributions are key to understand the nature and intensity of future ground level O 3 concentrations. The difference in simulated O 3 mixing ratios with and without the O 3-Potential Vorticity (PV) parameterization scheme is used to represent the model estimated influence of STE on tropospheric O 3 distributions. Though STE contributions remain constant in Northern hemisphere as a whole, regional differences exist with Europe (EUR) registering increased STE contribution in both spring and winter while Eastern China (ECH) reporting increased contribution in spring in 2050 (RCP8.5) as compared to 2015. Importance of climate change can be deduced from the fact that ECH and EUR recorded increased STE contribution to O 3 in RCP8.5 compared to RCP4.5. Comparison of STE and non-STE meteorological process contributions to O 3 due to climate change revealed that contributions of non-STE processes were highest in summer while STE contributions were highest in winter. EUR reported highest STE contribution while ECH reported highest non-STE contribution. None of the 3 regions show consistent low STE contribution due to future climate change (< 50%) in all seasons indicating the significance of STE to ground level O 3.

MeSH

Climate