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Journal Article Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't Ppublish 6 citations

PubMed: 39028821 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adk2070

Large and unequal life expectancy declines during the COVID-19 pandemic in India in 2020.

Sci Adv 10(29):eadk2070

Authors: Aashish Gupta, Payal Hathi, Murad Banaji, Prankur Gupta, Ridhi Kashyap, Vipul Paikra, Kanika Sharma, Anmol Somanchi, Nikkil Sudharsanan, Sangita Vyas

Affiliations

  • Department of Sociology, University of Oxford, 42-43 Park End Street, Oxford OX1 1JD, England.
  • Nuffield College, New Road, Oxford OX1 1NF, England.
  • Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, University of Oxford, 42-43 Park End Street, Oxford OX1 1JD, England.
  • Research Institute for Compassionate Economics, 472 Old Colchester Rd. Amston, CT 06231, USA.
  • Department of Demography and Sociology, University of California, Berkeley, 310 Social Sciences Building, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA.
  • Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Andrew Wiles Building, Radcliffe Observatory Quarter (550), Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 6GG, England.
  • Department of Economics, University of Texas at Austin, 2225 Speedway, Austin, TX 78712, USA.
  • Department of Sociology, Emory University, 1555 Dickey Dr, Atlanta, GA 30322, USA.
  • Paris School of Economics, 48 Boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris, France.
  • TUM School of Medicine and Health, Technical University of Munich, Georg-Brauchle-Ring 60, 80992 Munich, Germany.
  • Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University, Im Neuenheimer Feld 130.3, 69120 Heidelberg, Germany.
  • Department of Economics, Hunter College (CUNY), 695 Park Ave. New York, NY 10065, USA.
  • CUNY Institute for Demographic Research, 135 E. 22nd St. New York, NY 10010, USA.

Abstract

Global population health during the COVID-19 pandemic is poorly understood because of weak mortality monitoring in low- and middle-income countries. High-quality survey data on 765,180 individuals, representative of one-fourth of India's population, uncover patterns missed by incomplete vital statistics and disease surveillance. Compared to 2019, life expectancy at birth was 2.6 years lower and mortality was 17% higher in 2020, implying 1.19 million excess deaths in 2020. Life expectancy declines in India were larger and had a younger age profile than in high-income countries. Increases in mortality were greater than expected based on observed seroprevalence and international infection fatality rates, most prominently among the youngest and older age groups. In contrast to global patterns, females in India experienced a life expectancy decline that was 1 year larger than losses for males. Marginalized social groups experienced greater declines than the most privileged social group. These findings uncover large and unequal mortality impacts during the pandemic in the world's most populous country.

MeSH

Mortality, Biological Science Disciplines, Income, Life Expectancy, Covid-19, Pandemics, Social Group

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