Journal Article Ppublish 1 citation
PubMed: 39964838 DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiaf054
Estimates of SARS-CoV-2 Infections and Population Immunity After the COVID-19 Pandemic in Austria: Analysis of National Wastewater Data.
J Infect Dis 231(5):e921-e928
Authors: Uwe Riedmann, Alena Chalupka, Lukas Richter, Martin Sprenger, Wolfgang Rauch, Hannes Schenk, Robert Krause, Peter Willeit, Herbert Oberacher, Tracy Beth Høeg, John P A Ioannidis, Stefan Pilz
Affiliations
- Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Endocrinology and Diabetology, Medical University of Graz, Graz, Austria.
- Institute for Surveillance and Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Austrian Agency for Health and Food Safety, Vienna, Austria.
- Institute of Statistics, Graz University of Technology, Graz, Austria.
- Institute of Social Medicine and Epidemiology, Medical University Graz, Graz, Austria.
- Department of Environmental Engineering, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria.
- Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Medical University of Graz, Graz, Austria.
- Institute of Clinical Epidemiology, Public Health, Health Economics, Medical Statistics, and Informatics, Medical University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria.
- Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
- Ignaz Semmelweis Institute, Interuniversity Institute for Infection Research, Vienna, Austria.
- Institute of Legal Medicine, Medical University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria.
- Core Facility Metabolomics, Medical University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria.
- Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA.
- Department of Clinical Research, University of Southern Denmark, Syddanmark, Denmark.
- Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA.
- Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA.
- Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA.
- Department of Biomedical Data Science, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA.
- Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA.
Abstract
BACKGROUND
Postpandemic surveillance data on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections may help inform future public health policies regarding severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) testing, vaccinations, or other COVID-19 measures. We estimate the total SARS-CoV-2 infections in Austria after the end of the pandemic from wastewater data and utilize these estimates to calculate the average national levels of SARS-CoV-2 infection protection and COVID-19 death protection.
METHODS
We estimated the total SARS-CoV-2 infections in Austria after the end of the pandemic (5 May 2023, per World Health Organization) up to May 2024 from wastewater data using a previously published model. These estimates were used in an agent-based model (ABM) to estimate average national levels of SARS-CoV-2 infection protection and COVID-19 death protection, based on waning immunity estimates of infections and vaccination in previous literature.
RESULTS
We estimate approximately 3.2 million infections between 6 May 2023 and 23 May 2024, with a total of 17.8 million infections following 12 May 2020. The ABM estimates that the national average death protection was approximately 82% higher in May 2024 than before the pandemic. This represents a relative decrease of 8% since May 2023. It also shows that 95% of people in Austria were infected with SARS-CoV-2 at least once by May 2024. National infection protection remained relatively low after the onset of Omicron.
CONCLUSIONS
These findings should be considered for public health decisions on SARS-CoV-2 testing practices and vaccine booster administrations.
MeSH
Research Design, Coronavirus, Sars-Cov-2, Immunization, Vaccines, Public Health, Vaccination, Covid-19, Immunity, Pandemics, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-Related Coronavirus, Communicable Diseases, Infections