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Publications

Journal Article Ppublish

PubMed: 40247992 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-025-03888-6

Projections of future climate for U.S. national assessments: past, present, future.

Clim Change 178(4):84

Authors: Samantha Basile, Allison Crimmins, Fredric Lipschultz, Kenneth E Kunkel, Kate Marvel, Adam Terando, Claudia Tebaldi, David Pierce, Wenying Su, L Ruby Leung, Katharine Hayhoe

Affiliations

  • Schenectady, NY USA.
  • US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington, DC USA.
  • Universities Space Research Association, Washington, DC USA.
  • North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC USA.
  • NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY USA.
  • US Geological Survey, Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center, Raleigh, NC USA.
  • Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD USA.
  • Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California USA.
  • NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA USA.
  • Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA USA.
  • Texas Tech University, the Nature Conservancy, Lubbock, TX USA.

Abstract

Climate assessments consolidate our understanding of possible future climate conditions as represented by climate projections, which are largely based on the output of global climate models. Over the past 30 years, the scientific insights gained from climate projections have been refined through model structural improvements, emerging constraints on climate feedbacks, and increased computational efficiency. Within the same period, the process of assessing and evaluating information from climate projections has become more defined and targeted to inform users. As the size and audience of climate assessments has expanded, the framing, relevancy, and accessibility of projections has become increasingly important. This paper reviews the use of climate projections in national climate assessments (NCA) while highlighting challenges and opportunities that have been identified over time. Reflections and lessons learned address the continuous process to understand the broadening assessment audience and evolving user needs. Insights for future NCA development include (1) identifying benchmarks and standards for evaluating downscaled datasets, (2) expanding efforts to gather research gaps and user needs to inform how climate projections are presented in the assessment (3) providing practitioner guidance on the use, interpretation, and reporting of climate projections and uncertainty to better inform decision-making.

MeSH

Climate