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Journal Article Ppublish 7 citations

PubMed: 40309299 DOI: 10.1038/s44407-025-00006-9

The recent and future PM-related health burden in China apportioned by emission source.

NPJ Clean Air 1(1):7

Authors: Jiemei Liu, Jørgen Brandt, Jesper H Christensen, Zhuyun Ye, Tingsen Chen, Shikui Dong, Camilla Geels, Yuan Yuan, Athanasios Nenes, Ulas Im

Affiliations

  • Key Laboratory of Aerospace Thermophysics, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Harbin Institute of Technology, 92 West Dazhi Street, Harbin, 150001 China. Aarhus University, Department of Environmental Science/Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change, Frederiksborgvej 399, Roskilde, Denmark.
  • Aarhus University, Department of Environmental Science/Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change, Frederiksborgvej 399, Roskilde, Denmark.
  • School of Mechanical Engineering, Beijing Institute of Technology, 100081 Beijing, China.
  • Key Laboratory of Aerospace Thermophysics, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Harbin Institute of Technology, 92 West Dazhi Street, Harbin, 150001 China.
  • Key Laboratory of Aerospace Thermophysics, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Harbin Institute of Technology, 92 West Dazhi Street, Harbin, 150001 China. School of Urban Construction, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, No. 2, West Huangjiahu Road, Hongshan District, Wuhan, 430065 China.
  • Laboratory of Atmospheric Processes and Their Impacts, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Lausanne, Switzerland.
  • Center for the Study of Air Quality and Climate Change, Foundation for Research and Technology Hellas (FORTH), Thessaloniki, Greece.

Abstract

This study estimated PM (atmospheric fine particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 µg) concentrations and the health burden in mainland China from 2010 to 2049 under two scenarios: Current Legistaions and Maximum Technical Feasible Reductions. We assess premature deaths from PM exposure, examining sources like coal combustion, biomass burning, industry, and tailpipe emission from on-road transport. Results show that central and eastern China account for 75% of PM-related deaths, with biomass burning (40%) and industry (34%) as primary contributors. Under the Current Legistaions and Maximum Technical Feasible Reductions scenarios, PM-related premature deaths are projected to decrease by 43% and 80% (linear EVA) and by 28% increase and 40% decrease (nonlinear EVA) from 2010 to 2049. Assuming a linear relationship, the Maximum Technical Feasible Reductions scenario estimates that reduced PM exposure could avoid 1.55 million premature deaths annually by 2049 compared to 2010, primarily from coal combustion for heating, biomass burning, industry, and tailpipe emission from on-road transport.

MeSH

Coal, Biomass, Mortality, Premature