Journal Article Ppublish 1 citation
PubMed: 40767533 DOI: 10.1002/jmv.70521
Modeling Antibody Kinetics Post-mRNA Booster Vaccination and Protection Durations Against SARS-CoV-2 Infection.
J Med Virol 97(8):e70521
Authors: Luis J Ponce, Yuqian Wang, Ananya Singh, Hoong Kai Chua, Marc Chen, Pei Xiang Hor, Chiew Yee Loh, Xuan Ying Poh, Suma Rao, Po Ying Chia, Sean W X Ong, Tau Hong Lee, Ray J H Lin, Clarissa Lim, Jefanie Teo, Yun Shan Goh, Keisuke Ejima
Affiliations
- Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore.
- School of Biological Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore.
- A*STAR Infectious Diseases Labs (A*STAR ID Labs), Agency for Science, Technology, and Research (A*STAR), Singapore, Singapore.
- National Center for Infectious Diseases (NCID), Singapore, Singapore.
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore, Singapore.
- National Center for Infectious Diseases (NCID), Singapore, Singapore. Department of Infectious Diseases, Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore, Singapore.
- National Center for Infectious Diseases (NCID), Singapore, Singapore. Department of Infectious Diseases, Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore, Singapore. National Healthcare Group, Singapore, Singapore.
Abstract
Understanding the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 antibody levels post-booster vaccination is important to inform their durations of protection. Longitudinal antibody data was collected on the day of booster vaccination, as well as 28, 180, and 360 days after. Using nonlinear mixed effects models, we mapped the kinetics of binding IgA and IgG against wild-type (WT) and Omicron BA.1 spike proteins. Furthermore, we analyzed the association between antibody levels and risk of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine breakthrough infection through survival analyzes, and predicted durations of protection against infection. We found that the antibody response waned more rapidly following the Pfizer/BioNTech BNT162b2 booster compared to the Moderna mRNA-1273 booster. However, individuals boosted with the Pfizer vaccine exhibited a steeper rebound in antibody levels after infection. Faster postinfection antibody growth rates were observed in the elderly, females, and those with late infections. High antibody levels for WT IgG and BA.1 IgA at day 28 post-booster were associated with reduced infection risk; hazard ratios were 0.47 (95% CI [0.22, 0.98]) and 0.36 (95% CI [0.17, 0.78]), respectively, compared to low levels. Time-varying antibody levels showed better survival model fits. At medium COVID-19 case incidence (621 cases per million per day), a binding BA.1 IgA response of at least 20% is needed to sustain 80% protection against infection over 155 days post-booster. Our estimates of protection durations against SARS-CoV-2 infection post-booster vaccination may help inform the ideal frequency of boosters.
MeSH
Sars-Cov-2, Vaccines, Virology, Rna, Messenger, Survival Analysis, Vaccination, Covid-19, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-Related Coronavirus, Infections