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Publications

Journal Article Ahead of print

PubMed: 42032201 DOI: 10.1038/s41416-026-03412-2

Modelled impact of a multi-cancer early detection screening programme on cancer treatment in England.

Br J Cancer

Authors: Libby Ellis, Charlotte Eversfield, Ewan Gray, Peter S Hall, Sara Hiom, David A Jones, Lennard Yw Lee, Sean McPhail, Katie Spencer, Christopher Halloran

Affiliations

  • GRAIL Bio UK Ltd, London, UK.
  • National Disease Registration Service, NHS England, London, UK.
  • GRAIL Bio UK Ltd, London, UK.
  • University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
  • University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Cancer screening can reduce late-stage diagnoses, expand treatment options, and improve cancer outcomes. We modelled how introducing a multi-cancer early detection (MCED) screening programme in England could impact cancer treatment patterns.

METHODS

The proportions of cancers (19 types, diagnosed 2014-2019) treated with resection, radiotherapy, and systemic anti-cancer therapy (SACT) were applied to modelled stage-specific cancer incidence data with and without addition of MCED screening to existing screening. We modelled an initial screening round (first screen for individuals aged 50-79 years) and a steady-state programme (annual screening from age 50-79 years).

RESULTS

Assuming test parameters are accurate, if MCED screening is introduced in England, more cancers would require resection compared with current annual usage (steady-state: +8900, +10.0%). The number of cancers receiving radiotherapy would decrease overall (-1200; -2.0%) due to a decrease in palliative radiotherapy (-2100; -23.0%); the number of cancers treated with curative radiotherapy would increase slightly (+932; +2.1%). Fewer cancers would receive cytotoxic chemotherapy (-5300, -9.8%) and non-cytotoxic SACT (-530, -12.2%). Increased use of curative treatment combinations is also predicted.

CONCLUSIONS

Changes to future service delivery and workforce planning will be needed for the full benefits of an MCED screening programme to be realised.

MeSH

Radiotherapy, Early Detection Of Cancer, Neoplasms, Multiple Chronic Conditions, Therapeutics