Journal Article Preprint Epublish
PubMed: 42282647 DOI: 10.64898/2026.06.01.729407
A specific computational role for early-life unpredictability, and not lifelong traumatic experience, in decision-making under uncertainty.
bioRxiv
Authors: Yifan Zhang, Yifei Chen, X Roger Chen, Nora C Harhen, Laura A Glynn, Elysia P Davis, Tallie Z Baram, Victoria B Risbrough, Daniel A Stout, Aaron M Bornstein
Abstract
It has been shown that early-life adversity (ELA) shapes how individuals learn, remember, and make decisions, yet the precise computations altered by these experiences remain unclear. Here, we combine a structured foraging task with computational modeling to test a recently developed theory for how a particular kind of ELA, early-life unpredictability (ELU), specifically influences choice under uncertainty. Adult participants (N=297) performed a sequential foraging task requiring continuous trade-offs between exploiting depleting resources and exploring alternatives. Subsets also completed assessments of early-life unpredictability (QUIC) and for trauma symptoms arising from lifelong stressors (PCL). We fit participants' behavior with a Bayesian learning-and-planning model in which uncertainty modulates the valuation of leaving a current resource patch. Critically, the subjective influence of local uncertainty was allowed to vary freely between participants. Consistent with theoretical proposals, computational model fits and mediation analyses revealed a robust indirect pathway: ELU predicted increased discounting in the face of uncertainty, which in turn predicted greater overharvesting. This pattern was consistent across environmental conditions, indicating that early-life unpredictability primarily influences behavior through a general influence on uncertainty processing. Importantly, although PCL scores were also correlated with uncertainty adaptation, these effects were fully accounted for by shared variance with ELU, offering a clear dissociation between developmental unpredictability and lifelong traumatic experience. Together, our results show that early-life unpredictability causes long-lasting changes in decision-making by amplifying the subjective experience of uncertainty.
MeSH
Decision Making, Uncertainty, Wounds And Injuries