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Publications

Journal Article Epublish

PubMed: 42856620 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2026.101935

Burden of cardiovascular diseases in the Asia-Pacific region from 1990 to 2023, with forecasts to 2050: a secondary analysis of the Global Burden of disease study 2023.

Lancet Reg Health West Pac 74:101935

Authors: Nicholas W S Chew, Srinithy Nagarajan, F Aaysha Cader, Yiming Chen, Bryan Chong, Clara K Chow, Corina Grey, Yuming Guo, Haryo Raden Himan, Jayanth Jayabaskaran, Thushara Matthias, Adam J Nelson, Marie Ng, Georgia Rejack, Anna Rolleston, Gregory Roth, Ambuj Roy, Navaneetha Sasikumar, Mitsuaki Sawano, Kathryn Choon Beng Tan, Jasper Tromp, Lijing L Yan, Khung Keong Yeo, Stephen J Nicholls, Carolyn S P Lam

Affiliations

  • Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore.
  • Department of Cardiology, National University Heart Centre, National University Health System, Singapore.
  • Department of Medicine, National University Hospital, Singapore.
  • Department of Cardiology, Ibrahim Cardiac Hospital and Research Institute, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
  • Kettering General Hospital, Kettering, UK.
  • Westmead Applied Research Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Westmead, NSW, Australia.
  • School of Population Health, University of Auckland, New Zealand.
  • Victorian Heart Institute, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, Australia.
  • Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, VIC, Australia.
  • Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical Sciences, University of Sri Jayewardenepura, Sri Lanka.
  • Royal Adelaide Hospital, Adelaide, SA, Australia.
  • University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia.
  • Monash Victorian Heart Institute, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.
  • The Centre for Health, Tauranga, New Zealand.
  • Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
  • Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
  • Department of Cardiology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, India.
  • Department of Pediatric Cardiology, Amrita Institute of Medical Sciences, Kochi, Kerala, India.
  • University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada.
  • Teikyo Academic Research Center, Teikyo University, Tokyo, Japan.
  • Department of Medicine, School of Clinical Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China.
  • Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, & the National University Health System, Singapore.
  • Duke Kunshan University, Kunshan, China.
  • National Heart Centre Singapore, Singapore.
  • Duke-National University of Singapore Medical School, Singapore.
  • Baim Institute for Clinical Research, Boston, MA, USA.

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death globally, with the Asia-Pacific region home to over two-thirds of the world's population, bearing over half of this burden. This study aims to characterise historical trends and forecast CVD burden in the Asia-Pacific from 1990 to 2050, identifying disparities by geographic subregions, sociodemographic index (SDI), and age-sex strata.

METHODS

Historical (1990-2023) and forecasted (2025-2050) trends in CVD disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and mortality across 39 Asia-Pacific countries were examined using Global Burden of Disease Study 2023.

FINDINGS

In the Asia-Pacific, CVD accounted for 241.2 million DALYs (55.3% of global) in 2023. Crude DALYs rose by 51.3% from 1990 to 2023, despite 36.2% reduction in age-standardised DALYs. Crude DALYs will rise further by 10.7% from 2025 to 2050. Atherosclerotic CVD is the key driver of morbidity, with stroke (1255.0 DALYs per 100,000 population) projected to plausibly surpass ischaemic heart disease (1148.7 DALYs per 100,000 population) by 2050. Disparities in CVD burden exist across SDI (low and low-middle SDI bearing the highest burden), geography (Oceania bearing the highest burden), and age-sex categories (DALYs peaking earlier in males by at least 5 years).

INTERPRETATION

The net effect of gains in CVD prevention is offset by the rising crude CVD burden owing to the growing and ageing population. The heterogeneity in CVD burden across countries of different socioeconomic development poses unique challenges in tackling CVD in the Asia-Pacific.

FUNDING

SingHealth Duke-National University of Singapore Cardiovascular Sciences Academic Clinical Programme, the National Medical Research Council of Singapore, and the Stafford Fox Foundation.

MeSH

Cardiovascular Diseases, Global Burden Of Disease, Sex, Cost Of Illness