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Publications

Journal Article Ppublish

PubMed: 42866124 DOI: 10.1088/2752-5309/aead12

Impact of tropical cyclones on child marriage rates in 14 affected countries.

Environ Res Health 4(4):045001

Authors: Anna Y Palmer, Yuta J Masuda, Aurélie P Harou, Margaret E Greene, Jai K Das, Christina T Kwauk, Brian E Robinson, Alissa Koski, Jill Baumgartner

Affiliations

  • Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, Canada. McGill Centre for Climate Change and Health, McGill University, Montreal, Canada.
  • Allen Family Philanthropies, Washington, Seattle, United States of America.
  • Department of Natural Resource Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, Canada.
  • GreeneWorks, Washington, DC, United States of America.
  • Institute for Global Health and Development, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan.
  • Division of Women and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan.
  • Unbounded Alliance, University Park, Maryland, United States of America.
  • McGill Centre for Climate Change and Health, McGill University, Montreal, Canada.
  • Department of Geography, McGill University, Montreal, Canada.
  • Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, Canada.
  • Department of Equity, Ethics, and Policy, McGill University, Montreal, Canada.

Abstract

Tropical cyclones (TCs) have had reported impacts on child marriage within certain communities, driven by disrupted livelihoods, displacement, and interruptions to education. However, the extent to which TCs affect national rates of child marriage has not been systematically studied. Here, we combine 12 888 607 person-years of nationally representative survey data on child marriage with high-resolution gridded wind speed data to estimate the effect of TCs on child marriage rates in 14 cyclone-exposed countries between 1983 and 2015. Using a distributed lag model, we estimate changes in child marriage rates up to three years following a cyclone. We find little measurable change in national child marriage rates after cyclones. We observe a small increase in the rate of child marriage in Mozambique, and subgroup analyses suggest that child marriage may have increased slightly among urban populations in Cambodia and Timor-Leste. Overall, these results indicate that, despite reported impacts, TCs are unlikely to be a dominant driver of child marriage rates globally.

MeSH

Marriage, Cyclonic Storms, Child