Journal Article Ppublish 4 citations
PubMed: 39284047 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2400117121
Estimating future climate change impacts on human mortality and crop yields via air pollution.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 121(39):e2400117121
Authors: Lee T Murray, Eric M Leibensperger, Loretta J Mickley, Amos P K Tai
Affiliations
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY 14627.
- Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY 14627.
- Department of Physics and Astronomy, Ithaca College, Ithaca, NY 14850.
- John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138.
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region 852, China.
- State Key Laboratory of Agrobiotechnology, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region 852, China.
- Institute of Environment, Energy and Sustainability, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region 852, China.
Abstract
Future climate change may bring local benefits or penalties to surface air pollution, resulting from changing temperature, precipitation, and transport patterns, as well as changes in climate-sensitive natural precursor emissions. Here, we estimate the climate penalties and benefits at the end of this century with regard to surface ozone and fine particulate matter (PM[Formula: see text]; excluding dust and smoke) using a one-way offline coupling between a general circulation model and a global 3-D chemical-transport model. We archive meteorology for the present day (2005 to 2014) and end of this century (2090 to 2099) for seven future scenarios developed for Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The model isolates the impact of forecasted anthropogenic precursor emission changes versus that of climate-only driven changes on surface ozone and PM[Formula: see text] for scenarios ranging from extreme mitigation to extreme warming. We then relate these changes to impacts on human mortality and crop production. We find ozone penalties over nearly all land areas with increasing warming. We find net benefits due to climate-driven changes in PM[Formula: see text] in the Northern Extratropics, but net penalties in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere, where most population growth is forecast for the coming century.
MeSH
Mortality, Air Pollution, Climate, Air, Environmental Pollution
Cited by
- Estimating future climate change impacts on human mortality and crop yields via air pollution. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 2024