Journal Article Ppublish 15 citations
PubMed: 39434981 DOI: 10.1016/j.ancene.2023.100386
Future climate change impacts on U.S. agricultural yields, production, and market.
Anthropocene 42:100386
Authors: Chengcheng Fei, Jonas Jägermeyr, Bruce McCarl, Erik Mencos Contreras, Carolyn Mutter, Meridel Phillips, Alex C Ruane, Marcus C Sarofim, Peter Schultz, Amanda Vargo
Affiliations
- Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA.
- Columbia University, Climate School, New York, NY, USA.
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA.
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.
- Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
- US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, USA.
- ICF, Reston, VA, USA.
- ICF, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
Abstract
This study provides estimates of climate change impacts on U.S. agricultural yields and the agricultural economy through the end of the 21st century, utilizing multiple climate scenarios. Results from a process-based crop model project future increases in wheat, grassland, and soybean yield due to climate change and atmospheric CO 2 change; corn and sorghum show more muted responses. Results using yields from econometric models show less positive results. Both the econometric and process-based models tend to show more positive yields by the end of the century than several other similar studies. Using the process-based model to provide future yield estimates to an integrated agricultural sector model, the welfare gain is roughly 16B/year (2019 USD) for domestic producers and 6.2B/year for international trade, but domestic consumers lose 10.6B/year, resulting in a total welfare gain of 11.7B/year. When yield projections for major crops are drawn instead from econometric models, total welfare losses of more than 28B/year arise. Simulations using the process-based model as input to the agricultural sector model show large future production increases for soybean, wheat, and sorghum and large price reductions for corn and wheat. The most important factors are those about economic growth, flooding, international trade, and the type of yield model used. Somewhat less, but not insignificant factors include adaptation, livestock productivity, and damages from surface ozone, waterlogging, and pests and diseases.
MeSH
Climate, Models, Econometric