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Publications

Journal Article Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't Epublish 37 citations

PubMed: 36481777 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-25134-0

Long-term durability of immune responses to the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 vaccines based on dosage, age and sex.

Sci Rep 12(1):21232

Authors: Chapin S Korosec, Suzan Farhang-Sardroodi, David W Dick, Sameneh Gholami, Mohammad Sajjad Ghaemi, Iain R Moyles, Morgan Craig, Hsu Kiang Ooi, Jane M Heffernan

Affiliations

  • Modelling Infection and Immunity Lab, Mathematics and Statistics, York University, 4700 Keele St, Toronto, ON, M3J 1P3, Canada.
  • Centre for Disease Modelling, Mathematics and Statistics, York University, 4700 Keele St, Toronto, ON, M3J 1P3, Canada.
  • Centre for Disease Modelling, Mathematics and Statistics, York University, 4700 Keele St, Toronto, ON, M3J 1P3, Canada.
  • Department of Mathematics, University of Manitoba, 186 Dysart Road, Winnipeg, MB, R3T 2N2, Canada.
  • Modelling Infection and Immunity Lab, Mathematics and Statistics, York University, 4700 Keele St, Toronto, ON, M3J 1P3, Canada.
  • Digital Technologies Research Centre, National Research Council Canada, 222 College Street, Toronto, ON, M5T 3J1, Canada.
  • Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Université de Montréal & Sainte-Justine University Hospital Research Centre, 3175, ch. Côte Sainte-Catherine, Montréal, QC, H3T 1C5, Canada.
  • Modelling Infection and Immunity Lab, Mathematics and Statistics, York University, 4700 Keele St, Toronto, ON, M3J 1P3, Canada.
  • Centre for Disease Modelling, Mathematics and Statistics, York University, 4700 Keele St, Toronto, ON, M3J 1P3, Canada.

Abstract

The lipid nanoparticle (LNP)-formulated mRNA vaccines BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 are a widely adopted multi vaccination public health strategy to manage the COVID-19 pandemic. Clinical trial data has described the immunogenicity of the vaccine, albeit within a limited study time frame. Here, we use a within-host mathematical model for LNP-formulated mRNA vaccines, informed by available clinical trial data from 2020 to September 2021, to project a longer term understanding of immunity as a function of vaccine type, dosage amount, age, and sex. We estimate that two standard doses of either mRNA-1273 or BNT162b2, with dosage times separated by the company-mandated intervals, results in individuals losing more than 99% humoral immunity relative to peak immunity by 8 months following the second dose. We predict that within an 8 month period following dose two (corresponding to the original CDC time-frame for administration of a third dose), there exists a period of time longer than 1 month where an individual has lost more than 99% humoral immunity relative to peak immunity, regardless of which vaccine was administered. We further find that age has a strong influence in maintaining humoral immunity; by 8 months following dose two we predict that individuals aged 18-55 have a four-fold humoral advantage compared to aged 56-70 and 70+ individuals. We find that sex has little effect on the immune response and long-term IgG counts. Finally, we find that humoral immunity generated from two low doses of mRNA-1273 decays at a substantially slower rate relative to peak immunity gained compared to two standard doses of either mRNA-1273 or BNT162b2. Our predictions highlight the importance of the recommended third booster dose in order to maintain elevated levels of antibodies.

MeSH

Immunity, Humoral, Vaccines, Rna, Messenger, Aged, Immunity, Sex, Natural Science Disciplines, Lipid Nanoparticles

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